Rehearse future scenarios and set response triggers
Imagining a future failure or breakthrough helps a team prepare actions before events force a response.
01 · The picture
Imagining a future failure or breakthrough helps a team prepare actions before events force a response.
Follow the decisions
01Future story
02Critical causes
03Possible response
04Trigger and owner
02 · The idea
How I understand it.
Choose a future date and ask people to describe how the organisation reached a significant outcome. A failure scenario can expose dependencies, missed signals and decisions that created vulnerability. A success scenario can expose opportunities and capabilities worth developing. Collect contributions independently from people with different perspectives; anonymity can help sensitive observations emerge. Group the stories into themes, examine the assumptions and select the issues that merit action. Then develop possible responses, test them with others and refine the details. Give each response an owner and identify the signals that would prompt it. The value comes from making preparations concrete: what to watch, what to do and who will act. Revisit the scenarios as evidence and conditions change.
03 · A fictional example
Put it into a business.
A training provider imagines two years ahead, after a major booking decline. Independent stories highlight dependence on one referral partner. A separate success exercise reveals demand from employers. The team tests direct outreach and tracks referral concentration. It agrees a trigger for increasing direct sales investment, assigns an owner and reviews progress at the next monthly strategy meeting.
04 · Bring it into the room
What observable signal should cause your team to act on a risk or opportunity it already recognises?
One decisionOne next actionOne way to check
Where this note comes from
An original explanation drawn from my saved learning material. The worked example is fictional.
StanfordCourse reading or session material
Shiv Premortem-PostPartum-2016
PDF pages 2–4: Conducting a PreMortem/PostPartum; Phase 1; Phase 2; Prototype; Final Test and Closure
These notes collect my interpretations and applications. The schools and authors retain their original teaching materials.